Divorce predictors

Shai Schechter • 2023

Science still can’t predict with any certainty whether two people will be attracted to each other. But, once two people are together, it can predict with 94% accuracy1 whether they’ll get divorced.

How? By putting the couple in a room, asking them to discuss a recurring disagreement in their life, and watching. Originally they were watching for a lot of different traits and behaviours, but it turns out only four correlate with whether the couple will ultimately divorce. Those four are:

  • Criticism
    Attacking a person’s character or personality rather than expressing dissatisfaction at a specific behaviour
  • Contempt
    Words or behaviour that convey that you’re in some way better than the other person: mockery, cynicism, eye-rolling, etc
  • Defensiveness
    Making complaints back, or deflecting the discussion, instead of taking responsibility for behaviour or addressing the complaint itself
  • Stonewalling
    Refusing to engage in a disagreement at all, ignoring it, walking away from it

(In simple terms, contempt is the main one that actually leads to divorce. The other 3 are relevant because criticism tends to eventually transform into contempt; defensiveness is generally a perpetuating response to criticism; and stonewalling is generally a perpetuating response to contempt).

What’s wild is that these are entirely changeable. Learning to communicate differently corrects the trajectory of the marriage.