The mind is, by and large, a prediction engine.

This is by design (or evolution), and is essential for survival. If you see the back third of a tiger to the left of a tree, and the front third of a tiger to the right of the tree, the brain—without any conscious effort—deduces that there’s likely a living tiger nearby and not just two (entirely harmless) tiger parts.

But with predictions like these, there are inevitably false positives.

Optical illusions are a common example of this. These illusions exploit the fact that your brain likes to make predictions, to fill in blanks.

But there are more significant false positives that can arise too, that can be detrimental to modern life.

For example:

Say you send a business email, and a week later the recipient hasn’t replied:

• What do you assume? Often, that
• What do you actually know to be true? They didn’t reply to your email